The UAE told OPEC on April 28, 2026 that it would leave the group, effective May 1. That single exit reshaped the numbers OPEC watchers track. With the UAE inside, OPEC produced about 28.0 million b/d in 2025, or 35% of world crude output. Without it, the group's share falls to 31%.

The UAE was no small member. It joined in 1967 as the emirate of Abu Dhabi. As of 2025 it held the third-largest crude oil production capacity in OPEC, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It produced an average of 3.4 million b/d in 2025 and held an estimated 4.2 million b/d of effective production capacity. Note the distinction: capacity is what a producer can pump if it opens the taps, not what it actually sold. The UAE's 3.4 million b/d was its output; the 4.2 million b/d was its ceiling.

What the exit does to OPEC+

The wider OPEC+ group also shrinks. OPEC+ countries made up about 46% of global crude output in 2025. Strip out the UAE and that figure drops to roughly 42%. OPEC+ formed in 2016 as oil prices fell hard on rising U.S. shale output. Its members set shared production targets, and traders follow those meetings closely.

Starting in April 2023, several OPEC+ producers agreed to rounds of voluntary output cuts meant to steady the market. The UAE and Saudi Arabia made among the largest of those cuts, even as the UAE's own capacity was rising. More recent agreements have exempted Iran, Venezuela, and Libya.

Saudi Arabia stays the group's biggest and most influential member. It was the world's second-largest oil producer in 2025 at 9.3 million b/d, behind the United States, and held an estimated 11.6 million b/d of effective capacity.

The Strait of Hormuz sits behind the numbers

The context here is a supply shock. Conflict in Iran began on February 28, 2026, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. That lowered regional production and hit oil markets hard.

Across the Middle East, the UAE and Saudi Arabia were the only regional OPEC members able to reroute exports around the Strait. The UAE sends crude through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman just outside the Strait. That line can carry up to 1.8 million b/d, and the UAE says it plans to double the pipeline's capacity by 2027. Saudi Arabia uses its 7 million-b/d East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, with 5 million b/d of that open for exports and the rest for domestic use. Because of those routes, both countries shut in less crude than other Middle Eastern producers that depend on the Strait.

OPEC+ meetings still set targets based on the group's read of global balances. But the closure of the Strait capped how much the group could actually add.