Brent crude oil swung from a high of $118 a barrel on April 29 to a low of $72 a barrel on June 26, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a review of second-quarter 2026 markets. The quarter opened with Brent above $100 a barrel as disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduced access to crude oil for much of the world and pushed several producers in the Middle East to shut in output.
Daily swings quadrupled
Volatility in April and May was extreme by recent standards. Brent's average daily price swing reached $4 a barrel in those two months, four times the $1 average swing recorded in the same months of 2025, the EIA said. Prices then eased from May 18 to June 17, as negotiated ceasefires and growing expectations that shipping would resume through the strait pulled Brent down by more than $1 a barrel a day on average.
An MOU, then new strikes
On June 17, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed in part at resuming shipping traffic through the strait, a corridor that carries crude from major Middle East producers to buyers worldwide. Tanker movements through the waterway picked up afterward, and Brent generally kept falling for the rest of the quarter. The calm didn't hold: in the first two weeks of the third quarter, prices rose again after renewed military strikes and fresh uncertainty over the agreement, the EIA said. It is the kind of geopolitics and supply risk that has kept oil traders on edge, with a single strait able to swing the global benchmark within days.
Inventories fell despite the price drop
Prices declined in the back half of the quarter even as global crude inventories drew down sharply. The EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook put the second-quarter global inventory decline at an average of 5.1 million barrels a day. U.S. commercial crude stocks fell from above their five-year seasonal average (2021-2025) at the start of the quarter to their lowest seasonal level since 2014 by the end of it, a decline the EIA tied to record crude exports and high refinery runs.
Refiners ran hard and exported records
U.S. refineries processed more crude in the quarter than in any second quarter since 2019, when the country's refining capacity was 4% higher, as refiners chased strong margins on transportation fuels. The gasoline crack spread, a measure of refining margin, rose 60% from a year earlier. The distillate and jet fuel crack spreads more than doubled year over year as international product supply tightened. A crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of the refined products made from it, a rough gauge of refining profit.
Distillate exports averaged 1.56 million barrels a day, 30% above the five-year average, with shipments rising to all major export markets compared with the first quarter, according to data from Vortexa cited by the EIA. Jet fuel exports averaged 356,000 barrels a day, more than double the five-year average, with the increase concentrated in shipments to Europe while other destinations held roughly steady. To meet that demand, refiners shifted their output mix toward jet fuel.
| Metric | 2Q26 vs. five-year average |
|---|---|
| Distillate exports | 1.56 million b/d, +30% |
| Jet fuel exports | 356,000 b/d, more than double |
| Jet fuel production | +24% |
| Distillate production | +5% |
| Gasoline production | +1% |
