U.S. jet fuel production climbed above 2 million barrels a day for the first time on record in the week ending May 1, according to the EIA. The four-week average had stood at 1.7 million b/d on February 28, the day the Strait of Hormuz closed and cut off much of the Persian Gulf supply that Europe and Asia depend on for jet fuel.
The closure pushed crude prices higher and created a supply gap that fell hardest on buyers in Europe and Asia, who had leaned on Persian Gulf cargoes. U.S. refiners answered by running harder and shifting their product slate toward jet fuel, the EIA says, a mix of above-average refinery runs and deliberate changes to how much jet fuel each barrel of crude yields.
Margins tripled on the Gulf Coast
The incentive was price. From March through May, Gulf Coast jet fuel spot prices averaged $3.91 a gallon, roughly double where they started the year and above regional gasoline and diesel prices over the same stretch. The jet fuel crack spread, the margin a refiner earns turning crude into jet fuel, averaged $1.25 a gallon on the Gulf Coast in that period, up from $0.42 a gallon at the start of the year. Trading hubs in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp and Singapore saw jet prices roughly double too, with crack spreads rising alongside them.
Exports absorbed the extra barrels
Most of the added U.S. production left the country. Jet fuel prices in Europe and Asia traded at large premiums to the Gulf Coast in March and April, drawing in U.S. barrels to replace lost Middle East supply. Weekly estimates built from U.S. Customs and Border Protection trade data show U.S. jet fuel exports reached record levels in April and May.
That premium has since narrowed. Jet prices in Europe and Asia are now closer to Gulf Coast levels, and all three regions are trading below their April peaks as fears of an imminent shortage have eased.
Despite the export surge, U.S. jet fuel inventories have stayed comfortable. Stocks totaled 45 million barrels as of May 29, 7% above the 2021-2025 average. West Coast inventories, the region most reliant on jet fuel imports, remain above average too, though the EIA notes that if the recent drop in West Coast imports continues, the region may need to draw down stocks more heavily.
The swing illustrates how a geopolitics and supply shock in one region can redirect fuel flows worldwide within weeks, as refiners chase the widest margins wherever they open up.
