Energy-importing countries are scaling up clean power three times faster than exporting countries, according to DNV's tenth edition of its Energy Transition Outlook. The non-fossil share of the primary energy mix in importing regions rose 2.2 percentage points over the past five years, versus 0.7 percentage points in exporting regions, DNV found. China, India and Europe have shifted toward non-fossil energy more than three times as fast as the Middle East, North America and Russia.
Governments are seeking to cut reliance on imported oil and gas by building up power generated at home, DNV said. The disruption to energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz is reinforcing that push, strengthening incentives for importing countries to diversify and reduce their exposure to oil and gas markets. At the same time, exporting countries outside the Middle East are raising production to cover disrupted supplies, even as their own shift away from fossil fuels slows relative to the rest of the world.
Middle East's share of oil output set to shrink
DNV's new forecast puts the Middle East's share of global oil production at around 40% in 2050, down from 50% in last year's Outlook.
A separate DNV sensitivity analysis modeled what happens if the Middle East conflict runs until 2030 with oil and gas prices staying moderately elevated. In that scenario, global oil and gas demand would run 4-6% lower while the conflict continues, and would stay 2-5% below DNV's main forecast for the rest of the forecast period. DNV called that gap permanent demand destruction, as consumers and governments speed up their shift to alternative energy sources.
"Energy security is redrawing the map of the energy transition," said Ditlev Engel, CEO - Energy Systems at DNV.
