Conventional ethanol blending credits fell to $1.75 each at 12:45 p.m. ET, down 34 cents from Friday and their lowest level since April 15, according to Argus Media. The drop followed word from the Environmental Protection Agency that it would extend a September 1 compliance deadline for refiners and rule on pending small refinery exemption requests by the end of August.
The credits, known as Renewable Identification Numbers or RINs, are the currency of the Renewable Fuel Standard, the federal program that requires refiners to blend a set volume of biofuel into the fuel supply each year. A refiner can meet its obligation either by blending biofuel directly, which generates RINs, or by buying RINs from other market participants who have blended more than their share.
RIN prices extend a slide
Monday's drop added to a 5% fall on Friday, according to Argus Media. So-called D6 RINs, the credits tied to conventional ethanol, had traded as high as $2.50 on July 7. Biomass-based diesel RINs for 2026 were last assessed at around $1.92 each, their weakest level since late April, Argus data showed.
Jessica Dell, head of U.S. biofuel pricing at Argus Media, said RIN prices lost substantial value again during Monday's session in response to the EPA's impending small refinery exemption decisions. The timing of those decisions has been a major source of uncertainty for the market, Dell said, especially after the agency finalized record-high renewable fuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027, which added to refiners' compliance burdens.
What the EPA proposed
The EPA's plan would push back the deadline for refiners to show they met their 2025 biofuel blending mandates, giving them more time to acquire RINs. The agency said the extension is meant to prevent market volatility and ease supply-chain pressure tied to acquiring the credits. It has opened a public comment period to gather input from refining groups, biofuel producers and agricultural advocates before finalizing the revised compliance schedule.
The EPA is separately reviewing 34 small refinery exemption petitions, some of which date back to July 2024. Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, said the deadline extension points to "RIN relief" for refiners' 2026 and 2027 obligations as well.
Exemption estimates diverge
Representatives of the refining and ethanol industries and an analyst estimate that the pending exemptions could free up between 1.2 billion and 1.8 billion RINs that small refiners could use toward their 2025 compliance obligations. That is well above the 990 million RINs the EPA had previously indicated it could reallocate through exemptions.
One senior trader said RINs collapsed as speculation of exemption relief began building toward 1.8 billion, a figure well above the roughly 1.3 billion the market had been expecting.
