OPEC+ left its November oil output targets unchanged on Sunday, with seven core members of the alliance opting against any change to output quotas as the Middle East conflict keeps crude prices above $100 a barrel.
The call came from a sub-group of seven key producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, during a brief online meeting. It matched market expectations that the alliance would hold policy steady until next year. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which oversees compliance, also met and repeated its concern over attacks on energy infrastructure and threats to international shipping routes.
Oil prices fell on Friday after the Group of Seven agreed to a request from US President Donald Trump to release diesel reserves. Brent crude has since moved back above $100 a barrel, up from about $73 before the Iran war began in late February. Despite the G7 move, the market remains tight, since conflict-related export disruptions keep constraining actual supply from the Gulf.
Output up, but still below prewar levels
The seven core members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but still roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels from February, according to OPEC data. The group has been raising output targets through much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of those increases have stayed on paper because of the conflict. Gulf producers have been pumping well below their quotas, with exports fluctuating at roughly 60 to 80 percent of normal levels in recent months.
About 2 million bpd of cuts still in place
Around 2 million bpd of output cuts remain in place for most members, and any further changes to quotas are unlikely before 2027, pending a delayed capacity review. The war has also postponed that review, which is needed to set 2027 quotas, leaving estimates of future production potential uncertain. The seven-nation sub-group meets again on November 1, and the full ministerial meeting to set next year's policy is scheduled for November 29.
Quotas on paper, not barrels at sea
Higher official quotas do not automatically translate into more oil reaching buyers. Russia's production is running at around 9 million bpd, below its OPEC+ target of about 9.8 million bpd, after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ in May, following years of frustration over production cuts, has added another layer of uncertainty about how durable the group's coordinated limits are.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas exports pass, has seen its flows repeatedly disrupted by the conflict. Houthi control of Yemen's Red Sea coast has further complicated tanker movements along the Suez Canal route.
