PJM has begun its annual review of proposed changes to expected large-load electricity demand, a process meant to inform the grid operator's 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast. The review comes as power demand grows quickly across the PJM region, driven largely by data centers and other large electricity users. On Tuesday, 12 utilities presented proposals to PJM's Load Analysis Subcommittee: Dominion Energy, NOVEC, Rappahannock, ODEC, PPL, AEP, Duquesne, FirstEnergy, Exelon, AES, Duke and PSEG. The submissions mostly cover data centers, though they can include other high-use electricity customers.
Sorting firm demand from speculative demand
PJM does not run a load interconnection queue. Instead it depends on Load Serving Entities to submit Large Load adjustments to the long-term forecast, and this year it standardized that process, requiring utilities to supply more detail, including contract status, so PJM can tell which commitments are firm. Near-term forecast years are treated as needing firm commitments, such as an Electric Service Obligation or a Construction Commitment. Longer-term projects are considered non-firm and carry more uncertainty.
Submitters also had to give their Relevant Electric Retail Regulatory Authority a chance to weigh in on the proposals, and to ask their Large Load customers whether they were duplicating requests to connect elsewhere. PJM introduced that new submission template in July, when it opened this round for proposals, building on guidelines it updated earlier this year to spell out how Large Load adjustments would be handled.
An outside look at data center demand
For the first time, PJM has retained an outside consultant, Charles River Associates, to study data center demand trends, including AI adoption and the growth of the digital economy, along with possible constraints on power, materials and regional development. Charles River Associates presents its findings in October. PJM will then show in November how it folded all of the submissions and the consultant's analysis into a final load adjustment, ahead of the 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast's publication in January.
