The U.S. Energy Information Administration pushed its 2027 crude oil production forecast up to a record 14.3 million barrels a day, the third straight monthly increase after 14.2 million in August and 14.0 million in July. The revision came in the agency's September Short-Term Energy Outlook, released September 9, which held the 2026 forecast steady at 13.8 million bpd, a level that already exceeds the 13.7 million bpd record set in 2025.

Where the extra barrels are coming from

Actual production in the first half of 2026 ran at 13.7 million bpd, a 300,000 bpd gain, or 2 percent, over the same period a year earlier. The EIA credits most of that increase to the Permian Basin and the federal Gulf of Mexico. Permian output is tracking at 6.8 million bpd this year, 3 percent higher than 2025. In the Gulf, four projects that came online over the past year, Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale and Salamanca, are together producing 191,000 bpd, with four smaller projects due to start by the end of 2026. Prices have stayed high enough to keep rigs working: WTI averaged $84 a barrel through August, up from $65 a year earlier, against breakevens the Dallas Fed puts at $69 in the Midland Basin and $63 in the Delaware Basin.

OPEC pencils in a sixfold jump in demand growth

OPEC's September Monthly Oil Market Report cut its 2026 global demand growth estimate to 380,000 bpd, the fifth consecutive monthly cut, putting full-year 2026 consumption at 105.84 million bpd. For 2027 the group reversed course, raising demand growth to 2.36 million bpd, more than six times this year's pace, for total demand of 108.19 million bpd. The regional breakdown:

  • China: up 10,000 bpd in 2026 to 16.90 million bpd, then up 380,000 bpd in 2027
  • India: up 60,000 bpd in 2026, up 400,000 bpd in 2027
  • OECD: down 110,000 bpd in 2026, up 430,000 bpd in 2027
  • Non-OECD: up 490,000 bpd in 2026, up 1.92 million bpd in 2027

Demand for crude supplied by Declaration of Cooperation countries climbs from 42.2 million bpd in 2026 to 43.9 million bpd in 2027, a call of 1.6 million bpd on OPEC+ barrels.

Stocks keep falling, tankers keep earning

Global oil inventories are already down about 400 million barrels this year and, by EIA's estimate, are still drawing: a 3.9 million bpd decline in the second quarter, followed by further draws of 3.0 million bpd in the third quarter and 1.7 million bpd in the fourth. The agency's price path has Brent averaging $91 a barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, with WTI near $85 this year and $70 next. At the pump, EIA projects gasoline at $3.84 a gallon in 2026 easing to $3.35 in 2027, and diesel at $5.07 this year falling to $4.40 next year. Distillate stocks are set to drop below 100 million barrels in September and stay under the 2021-2025 five-year low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027, with diesel crack spreads holding above $2 a gallon from August into November. Shipping shows the disruption most clearly: very large crude carriers running the Middle East to China route are earning nearly $800,000 a day, with the Strait of Hormuz seeing little traffic and Houthi forces holding a tighter grip on the southern Red Sea. The September STEO itself was finalized September 3, ahead of the latest weekend escalation in the Gulf, and spot Brent has already traded above $100 a barrel since.

Exports keep the Gulf Coast in play

The U.S. is projected to stay a large net exporter of crude and products, with net imports at negative 4.2 million bpd in 2026 and negative 3.8 million bpd in 2027. That keeps pipelines, export terminals and Gulf Coast logistics in demand while the Atlantic Basin runs short of Middle East barrels and Asian buyers pay up for supply they can count on.