OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 b/d, third downgrade in a row

OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels a day, the third downgrade in as many monthly reports, the group said in its latest oil market report. The new figure is down from 970,000 b/d in the previous report.

OPEC maintained that the Iran war has done less damage to global oil consumption than other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency, have estimated. The group also raised its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.94 million b/d, an increase of 210,000 b/d from its prior estimate, pointing to a stronger global economy expected later in the year.

Key figures from the report:

• 2026 global demand growth forecast: 780,000 b/d, down from 970,000 b/d
• 2027 global demand growth forecast: 1.94 million b/d, up 210,000 b/d from the prior estimate
• OPEC+ crude production in June: 36.28 million b/d, up about 3 million b/d from May

Strait of Hormuz closure hit output

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted production of millions of barrels of oil a day across the Middle East for several months, the report said. Production has started recovering following an interim peace agreement between Iran and the United States. Fresh military strikes have since raised new worries about whether oil cargoes can move safely through the region.

OPEC+ output rebounds in June

OPEC+, which groups OPEC members with allies including Russia, had agreed to resume production increases starting in April, but the Strait closure kept the group from reaching its agreed quota levels. Secondary sources cited in the report put average OPEC+ crude production at 36.28 million b/d in June, up about 3 million b/d from May, as Gulf producers restored output that had been halted during the Iran war. May's production total included the United Arab Emirates, which left both OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.

Economic backdrop

OPEC said the global economy held up broadly well through the first half of 2026. The group added that further easing of geopolitical tension could add upside to growth in the back half of the year if trade flows and energy markets continue to settle down. WTI crude traded at $84.65 as of June 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration.