US marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, a record that tops the 118.5 Bcf/d high set in 2025, the EIA forecasts in its August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook. Production already averaged 121.3 Bcf/d in the first half of the year, up 4%, or 4.6 Bcf/d, from the same period in 2025.
Growth is concentrated in two regions, the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico and the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas. The EIA's global data, which runs through 2024, the most recent year available, shows the United States held the world's top gas-producing spot every year from 2009 through 2024.
2026 production forecast, by region
- Permian: 29.2 Bcf/d, up 6% from 2025
- Haynesville: up 9%, or 1.3 Bcf/d, from 2025
Permian growth tracks the price of oil
Most Permian gas comes up alongside crude oil as associated gas, so output there tracks the price of oil rather than the price of gas. West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $65 a barrel in 2025 and climbed to an average of $84 a barrel through July 2026, above the breakeven price operators need to cover costs in the region. In the Dallas Fed's Energy survey, executives put 2026 breakeven prices at $69 a barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 a barrel in the Delaware Basin, the Permian's two largest basins. With oil trading above both marks, oil-directed drilling has continued, and associated gas output has climbed with it.
A second factor is pushing Permian gas higher: the gas-to-oil ratio, the mix of gas versus oil a well produces, has been rising. As a reservoir is drawn down, pressure inside it falls, and gas flows more easily than oil at lower pressure. That shifts more of each well's output toward gas over time.
Haynesville drilling holds up despite deeper, costlier wells
Haynesville production rose 1.1 Bcf/d, or 7%, in the first half of 2026 versus the same period in 2025. Unlike the Permian, Haynesville wells are drilled mainly for gas rather than oil, so activity there tracks the Henry Hub price instead of the price of oil. The formation sits 10,500 to 13,500 feet deep, one of the deepest in the Lower 48, which raises development costs. The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026, down 2%, or 8 cents, from 2025. At that price, drilling in the Haynesville remains economical even with the added cost of deeper wells. The formation's location near liquefied natural gas export terminals and industrial gas users along the Gulf Coast is also drawing operators to the region.
