The US Energy Information Administration expects natural gas inventories to climb to 3,985 billion cubic feet by October, the most heading into the winter heating season since 2016. The agency's August Short-Term Energy Outlook, released August 11, credits the rise to higher natural gas production and lower feedgas demand tied to maintenance at liquefied natural gas facilities.
EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said the extra storage gives "a cushion for increased heating-related consumption during the winter."
Middle East supply constraints lift the oil price outlook
EIA raised its estimate of shut-in crude oil production in the Middle East from last month's forecast, citing continued constraints on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The outlook assumes those constraints continue through August. With global oil inventories set to decline, EIA expects Brent crude to average $85 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026. Prices are forecast to ease to $69 a barrel in 2027 as inventories rebuild and production rises.
LNG maintenance and stronger output pull gas prices down
US LNG exports are forecast to average 16.5 billion cubic feet a day in the third quarter of 2026, a slight pullback from July's outlook because of maintenance at Freeport LNG. That maintenance is cutting feedgas demand and building storage in the South Central region. Mexico's new Energia Costa Azul terminal and rising US gas use for power generation are pushing pipeline exports higher, and EIA expects LNG export growth to continue through 2027.
Henry Hub gas is forecast to average $2.87 per million British thermal units in the third quarter, 50 cents below last month's forecast. EIA ties the decline to lower LNG feedgas demand and strong natural gas production.
Texas caps data center growth as coal exports climb
Texas Governor Greg Abbott paused new data center projects in the state on August 3. EIA now forecasts Texas electricity load will grow 6% in 2027, down from the 14% growth rate it projected in July. Renewable generation rose 11% in early 2026 on new solar projects and increased natural gas use, and EIA expects more renewable capacity to come online through 2027. Natural gas-fired generation is forecast to increase as prices stay low, while coal-fired generation declines.
US coal exports surged in April and May, and EIA raised its 2026 coal export forecast to 102 million short tons. Metallurgical coal exports climbed through the first half of 2026, aided by new and reopened mines. Steam coal exports rose in the second quarter as natural gas-to-coal switching in Europe and Asia favored US coal.
Full-year forecast
The agency's wider energy markets outlook also points to US crude oil production rising to 14.2 million barrels a day by 2027, from 13.6 million in 2025:
| Indicator | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude ($/barrel) | $69 | $87 | $69 |
| Retail gasoline ($/gallon) | $3.10 | $3.78 | $3.29 |
| US crude oil production (million b/d) | 13.6 | 13.8 | 14.2 |
| Henry Hub gas ($/MMBtu) | $3.53 | $3.44 | $3.31 |
| US LNG gross exports (Bcf/d) | 15 | 17 | 19 |
