Global oil demand growth is set to jump more than sixfold next year, according to OPEC's September Monthly Oil Market Report. The organization projects growth accelerating from 380,000 barrels a day in 2026 to 2.36 million barrels a day in 2027.
OPEC trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast in the same report, putting total 2026 consumption at 105.84 million barrels a day. For 2027, OPEC raised its outlook, projecting global demand of 108.19 million barrels a day. The organization has lowered its 2026 growth forecast repeatedly this year.
China and India lead the reversal
China's demand growth is projected at just 10,000 barrels a day in 2026, holding consumption essentially flat at 16.90 million barrels a day. OPEC expects that to jump to 380,000 barrels a day of growth in 2027, lifting Chinese demand to 17.28 million barrels a day.
India shows a similar pattern. OPEC estimates 2026 growth at 60,000 barrels a day, then projects an additional 400,000 barrels a day in 2027, lifting Indian consumption to 6.11 million barrels a day.
OECD contracts, non-OECD carries the growth
OPEC expects demand among OECD countries to contract by 110,000 barrels a day in 2026, before returning to growth of 430,000 barrels a day in 2027, with increases across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific.
Non-OECD countries account for most of next year's increase. Their combined demand growth is projected to accelerate from 490,000 barrels a day in 2026 to 1.92 million barrels a day in 2027. China, India and the rest of Asia alone account for nearly 1.2 million barrels a day of that total.
| 2026 growth | 2027 growth | 2027 level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 10,000 b/d | 380,000 b/d | 17.28 million b/d |
| India | 60,000 b/d | 400,000 b/d | 6.11 million b/d |
| OECD | -110,000 b/d | 430,000 b/d | - |
| Non-OECD | 490,000 b/d | 1.92 million b/d | - |
| World | 380,000 b/d | 2.36 million b/d | 108.19 million b/d |
The call on OPEC crude rises too
The faster demand growth also lifts the call on OPEC crude, the volume the market is expected to need from producers within the Declaration of Cooperation, the OPEC-led supply agreement. OPEC projects that figure rising from 42.2 million barrels a day in 2026 to 43.9 million barrels a day in 2027, an increase of about 1.6 million barrels a day.
In the oil markets, WTI crude stood at $84.65 a barrel as of June 15, 2026, according to EIA data.
