OPEC+ kept its December oil production targets unchanged at an online meeting on Sunday. Seven members took the decision: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. The group said in a statement that it would maintain its existing targets for December.
The pause comes while the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports from the Middle East. Gulf producers are trying to raise exports after months of disruption, but most are still producing well below their agreed targets, which limits how much extra oil reaches global markets. Reuters reported that the decision suggests the group is unlikely to change its output policy again until next year.
What the seven members have done this year
The seven countries have made the monthly production decisions in recent years. They raised their output targets through much of 2026 and, in September, finished the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut agreed in 2023. They also held targets unchanged for October and November before Sunday's decision. The United Arab Emirates was part of this group until it left OPEC in May.
A separate layer of cuts, around 2 million bpd and covering most OPEC+ members, stays in place until the end of 2026.
The November 29 meeting
All 21 members of the wider OPEC+ alliance are scheduled to meet on November 29. Analysts cited by Reuters expect that meeting to matter more, because the group is likely to discuss production quotas for 2027. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, told Reuters that "today's decision was the easy one" and that the harder test comes on November 29, when members decide the framework for 2027 production.
Leon said the group faces a difficult choice on 2027 because of uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict, the recovery of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and a potential surplus once disrupted supplies return to the market. The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned that the market could see excess supply in 2027 if Gulf oil flows return to normal.
Capacity review ahead of 2027 baselines
OPEC+ is also reviewing the production capacity of its members before it sets the 2027 output baselines. Those baselines will determine future quotas and influence how the group unwinds the remaining supply cuts. Reuters reported that the review is expected to finish by mid-November.
The Iran war has disrupted projects meant to expand oil production capacity across the Middle East, which makes it harder to estimate how much individual countries will be able to produce in coming years.
We reported earlier that OPEC+ held November oil output quotas steady as the Middle East war kept Brent above $100.
