Tropical Storm Edouard was on track to make landfall near the Louisiana/Texas border later Tuesday, and the National Hurricane Center said the storm could near hurricane strength before it comes ashore.

As of the 4 a.m. CDT advisory, Edouard's maximum sustained winds stood at 35 knots (40 mph), and the storm was moving west-northwest at 7 knots. Forecasters pointed to 31 C sea-surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear of 4 knots as conditions favorable for quick strengthening while Edouard remains over water. Reconnaissance aircraft flying into the storm noted a low-level eyewall beginning to form, a structure forecasters said could matter for how fast Edouard intensifies as it nears the coast. Another Air Force Reserve mission was scheduled to fly into the storm Tuesday morning.

Track and intensity forecast

The Hurricane Center's forecast puts Edouard's winds at 55 knots (65 mph) near landfall, just under hurricane strength, though two hurricane-regional computer models, HMON and HAFS-A, showed the storm crossing that threshold before reaching shore. A ridge over the southeastern United States is steering Edouard west-northwest, with the track expected to bend more northwest after 24 hours as the storm moves inland over eastern Texas. The Hurricane Center's forecast track:

  • Now: 35 kt (40 mph), moving west-northwest at 7 kt
  • 12 hours (landfall): 55 kt (65 mph), Louisiana/Texas border
  • 24 hours: 30 kt (35 mph), inland over eastern Texas
  • 36 hours: 20 kt (25 mph), post-tropical
  • 48 hours: dissipated

Storm surge and rain risk

A Storm Surge Warning covers the coast from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line in Louisiana, where surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level is possible along the immediate coast. Hurricane conditions are possible from High Island to Cameron, and tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf Coast. Heavy rain is forecast across the upper Texas coast, east-central Texas and far southwest Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday, with flash flooding likely in urban areas and river flooding also possible.

Once ashore, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly. The Hurricane Center forecasts the system will become post-tropical within 36 hours and dissipate by Thursday morning.